![]() Some events, like the New York International Auto Show, have been cancelled. There are still signs of a threatened economy: BofA predicts a pullback in spending, and already noted a decline in spending on airfare over the past week. Things could change for better or for worse overnight. Now, if the pandemic has taught us anything, it's that life is uncertain. Spending is also going strong - Target and Walmart are headed toward a strong back-to-school season, and malls have made a comeback. And US jobless claims slid to 375,000 last week, suggesting little Delta impact. Then there's the fact that the US added nearly 1 million jobs in July. He cited four key shifts that have boosted productivity and would protect the US from another pandemic related recession: the QR menu at restaurants, the continued rise of e-commerce, the video-conferencing boom, and the shift from to cash to cards. The way the economy is "mutating" has left it less vulnerable and more productive, David Kelly, JPMorgan Funds' chief global strategist, said in a note on Monday. It's become so adaptable that experts widely expect the economic fallout from the Delta variant to be a fraction of early 2020's historic recession, Insider's Ben Winck reported. It helps, too, that the economy is also better prepared for the latest wave of infections than it was a year ago. "I think we have enough of the percentage of people in the country - not enough to crush the outbreak - but I believe enough to not allow us to get into the situation we were in last winter," he said. Anthony Fauci echoed a similar sentiment earlier this month, saying that enough people are vaccinated that a lockdown isn't necessary, although the US would still see a rise in cases because just as many people aren't vaccinated. "The existing vaccines are very effective so no, it's not a lockdown, but some areas will be very hurt," he said.ĭr. President Joe Biden said back in June that he didn't foresee a lockdown under Delta since so many Americans are vaccinated. The hybrid economy of the vaxxed and unvaxxed also means it's unlikely America will go under lockdown again. Even with the Delta surge, we won't go into full lockdown again While a portion of the vaccinated very worried about Delta may personally quarantine again, it's likely most of America will keep keeping on: the vaccinated who are trying to maintain the summer's taste of normalcy, albeit with more caution, and those among the unvaccinated who are opposed to restrictions and always acted like everything was normal in the first place will continue to stimulate the economy. However, the problem is that only half of Americans are fully vaccinated (vaccines haven't yet been approved for kids), and they thus need to bear the burden of protecting the unvaccinated half. We may still be living in a pandemic, but it's looking like the economy won't repeat 2020. This lack of cohesiveness isn't ideal, but improved from the unvaccinated economy that shut down last year. What's emerged is a two-track economy marked by a patchwork of highly vaccinated areas and poorly vaccinated regions. The health risks for the vaccinated aren't near what they were in 2020, meaning they can still live their lives with a degree of normalcy. More and more employers are requiring it of their workers as well and, as Insider's Juliana Kaplan reported, it's even increasingly required in job postings. For example, New York City and San Francisco will require proof of a vaccine for indoor activities like dining and using the gym. ![]() ![]() Given the recent surge in the Delta variant, cities are imposing their own rules, and if you're not vaccinated, you'll have limited participation. Once Americans understood how the virus spreads, many professions improvised methods to limit physical contact and keep the economy running while preventing another lockdown. That's because the economy has also mutated alongside the virus, learning how to adapt to a pandemic world. Account icon An icon in the shape of a person's head and shoulders.
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